NFL What If?

Quarterback Donovan McNabb has missed 21 starts in his 10-year career due to injury; 5 games in 2002 with a broken Ankle, 7 in 2005 with a sports hernia, 6 in 2006 with a torn ACL and 2 in 2007 with a sprained thumb on his throwing hand. Even though these injuries are completely unrelated and none of them have had lasting effects on his playing ability many people have still (unfairly?) labeled him as injury prone - but that's an argument for another time.

Today my goal is to ask one simple question: What if McNabb had stayed injury free his entire
career up to this point? What kind of seasons would he have had statistically?

I don't have a fancy computer at my disposal like the guys at the real What If Sports do, so I relied on a very simple formula for computing McNabb's overall stats. I figured out what his per-game average for each category was and multiplied it by 16, then rounded to the nearest whole number (except for Completion %, Yards Per Attempt and QB ratings - those I rounded to the nearest tenth.)

I did not weight my calculations based on the defenses that he was facing, injuries to other Eagles or opponent players, weather conditions, home/away games, or any other factors. This is purely an examination of his statistical averages stretched out to an entire season.

The fewest games McNabb has ever started in one season is 9 - meaning that he has always started more than half a season - which is plenty of time to establish a statistical trend. It would be a completely different story if he had only started one game because that's not enough to establish anything. Essentially, the more games you have to calculate season totals from, the more accurate the calculations become.

Another thing to note: I did not account for time McNabb may have missed in a game that he started. For instance, McNabb tore his ACL before halftime against the Titans in 2006. He played less than half a game that week, but my process counts it as a full game. Therefore some statistics may be skewed slightly lower. Maybe later I'll go through and calculate his per-quarter statistics and I might get slightly more accurate totals.

Lastly, I only adjusted the totals for games that McNabb missed due to injury. He didn't play the last week of the 2004 season because the Eagles had already clinched home field advantage. He also didn't play some games his rookie season.

So, how does McNabb fare according to my statistics? Let's take a look.

Here are McNabb's official, unaltered stats (sorry it's kinda small):

Here are his "What If?" stats, with the altered seasons highlighted:
So, had McNabb stayed healthy, how would he have performed? Pretty darn well, actually.

In 2002 he would have ranked 8th in total yards, tied for 2nd in TDs and posted the 7th best QB rating.

In 2005 he would have ranked 1st in passing yards by nearly 350 yards and would have been tied for 2nd in TDs.

In 2006 he would have ranked 4th in passing yards and 2nd in TDs while posting the 4th best QB rating.

2007 was the year Tom Brady decided to rewrite the record books, but McNabb still would have ended with respectable totals, ranking 9th in yards and 10th in TDs with a 9th place QB rating.

All-in-all McNabb at his worst performs as a top-10 QB. At his best he's a top-3, right up there with Tom Brady and Payton Manning.

2009 NFC East Preview: QBs

Having the right Quarterback can make or break your team's championship hopes, so it makes sense to start this position-by-position preview with the most important cog in the wheel: the field generals.

Cowboys:
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Tony Romo comes from the Brett Favre school of quarterbacking. He has a tendency to be careless with the football and focus too much on the big-play. He often holds on to the ball for far too long and tosses up lame ducks when under pressure. When his guys come down with the ball he's praised as a hero and called a "gunslinger," but when the other team comes up with the ball - well - this happens. Or how about this one? And this one, too. (To be fair, that 44-6 loss to the Eagles wasn't all Romo's fault, it was a complete team collapse. Offense, defense and special teams.)

Romo's still here, but T.O. isn't. Owens only topped 100-yards on two occasions last season, but he still managed to find the end zone 10 times. Romo's numbers will drop this season, but not as much as you might expect. He still has the game's most reliable tight end not named Tony Gonzalez and there should be a heavier emphasis on the run game, which will keep some pressure off his shoulders.

The Cowboys made a good move bringing Jon Kitna in to back Romo. They blamed losses to St. Louis and Arizona squarely on Brad Johnson and realized they needed an upgrade. Kitna will give them a better chance to win if Romo misses any time. Brad Johnson clearly was not cutting it, but the entire team was outplayed in both of those losses. I'm not convinced Dallas would have won either of those games even if Romo was healthy.

Kitna is essentially the same type of player as Romo: a hopeless gunslingers that will put up lots of yards and TDs, but might also kill you with turnovers. Kitna is not as talented as Romo, but he is far more competitive which helps close the gap. He is not a liability like Brad Johnson, but he's certainly not going to push Romo for playing time.

Eagles:
As maligned as he may be, Donovan McNabb is the best QB in the division and a solid top-5 QB in the league. The Eagles must agree because they gave him a raise and now they're paying him like one. Outside of Brian Westbrook and one season with Terrell Owens, McNabb has been playing with inferior tools at the skill positions his entire career and has still managed to produce like an A-lister. Well the Eagles may have finally surrounded McNabb with enough offensive fire-power to put him over the hump and into a Super Bowl ring. And I'm not the only one who thinks so.

There are a lot of new pieces to this offense - we have to wait and see how they all gel together - but if everything goes as smoothly as it's looking in camp, McNabb can stay healthy and Tom Brady doesn't start shattering records again then McNabb is going to be in the MVP discussion late in the season.

What worries me is depth behind McNabb. Kevin Kolb is number two on the depth chart and has played well in preaseason, but he has been terrible in his sparing regular season action. He played in 6 games last season - mostly garbage time - and recorded 17/34 for 144 and 4 INTs, including at least 2 that were returned for TDs. The light might click on for him some day, but he looks lost in real action.

A.J. Feeley can run this offense well, unfortunately he's very turnover prone. The Eagles coaching staff believes the key to winning football games is protecting the ball. McNabb is excellent at it, flirting back and forth with Neil O'Donnell for lowest INT percentage in NFL history. He might launch a few bullets at his receivers' feet, but at least he's not tossing it into the opponents hands. Feeley, however, doesn't protect the football as well and has given games away with interceptions in the waning minutes. Still - I think he's a better option than Kolb at this point. If McNabb were unavailable for a do-or-die football game I think Feeley leapfrogs Kolb and starts. At the very least Kolb is on the NFL's shortest leash if he does start.

Giants:
Eli Manning has a solid case for best QB in the NFC East, simply because he has something no one else does: A Super Bowl ring. Still though, there have been plenty of pedestrian Quarterbacks that have gotten hot at the right time and riden an excellent defense to a championship. (Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson have both done it this past decade.) I was almost ready to jump on the Eli bandwagon until Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg last season. With the freak-of-nature wide receiver out of the lineup Manning came crashing back to Earth. He no longer had the safety of lobbing a pass to a 6'5" giant when he got in trouble and it exposed all of his weaknesses. He was inaccurate, only managed 3 TD passes over the last 6 games including playoffs - only one of them to a wide receiver - and never cracked 200-yards. In short, he was pretty bad. You could certainly make the case that Plax made that air game run, not Eli.

This is a critical season for Eli to prove that the SB run was as much his doing as anyone elses. The defense is going to keep the Giants in every game they play, and the ground game is good for about 14 points and 40-minutes t.o.p each game. Eli just needs to prove that he can keep win a game or two with unproven receivers and he'll carve out his own legacy. The Giants should be a playoff team no matter what. The real test is going to be what happens in the playoffs. Do they make it to the Super Bowl, or are they one-and-done after an ugly loss at home? That's on Eli.

David Carr seems to have finally found a place he feels comfortable. Carr got a raw deal being the first franchise QB of the Houston Texans. He was put in a position where failure was guaranteed and then blamed for not succeeding. The Giants o-line keeps him upright long enough to complete his drop and make at least one or two reads and he proved that with that kind of support he can make smart decisions with the football. Carr looked better than Manning in the Week 17 loss to Minnesota last year. He'll never supplant Manning as the one in New York, but he is certainly the best reserve QB in the division.

Redskins:
Jason Campbell got screwed. Kind of like David Carr in Houston, Campbell has been forced into a situation where it was nearly impossible for him to succeed. He's had to endure system and regime changes on a yearly basis, criticism from just about everyone and a front office that shows no faith in him what-so-ever. Yes, Jason Campbell is the 4th-best starting Quarterback in the NFC East, but considering the talent at that position in the division that's not necessarily damning. Campbell has all the tools a successful Quarterback needs to win - he just needs the support of everyone around him.

It's clear the Redskins organization has bailed on Campbell - after essentially mortgaging the farm twice to replace him this offseason and failing miserably both times. What remains to be seen is how Jason responds. He could go out with a chip on his shoulder and prove that the Redskins made a mistake trying to replace him, or he could bail on an organization and fan-base that bailed on him long ago.

There is a growing contingency of fans that wants to see Colt Brennan replace Campbell at QB. Get a clue people, that's a HUGE mistake. I have no faith in Brennan's ability to be a starting QB in this league. First off, he went to college in Hawaii. Hawaii runs their offense out of 5-receiver sets about 70% of the time - more than any other team in college - which means that his passing statistics are significantly inflated. His college production is not a good indicator of his ability as a passer on the pro level.

Hawaii also plays in the WAC - a non-BCS conference - so they almost never play top-tier talent. Consequently their record is also significantly skewed. When they do play legitimate competition they get demolished, like during Brennan's swan song - the 2007 Sugar Bowl - when they were embarrassed by Georgia in one of the most lopsided BCS bowls I have ever seen.

Brennan might surprise me and develop into a first-rate starter, but I just don't have faith in a Hawaii quarterback. It's like me playing Pee-Wee football. Sure I can dominate against 8-year-olds, but put me in a league with a bunch of grown men and I'm probably average at best. If Brennan starts a game this year then it's pretty safe to say the 'Skins have already written this season off.

Todd Collins is a capable reserve and a good definition of game-manager. He does what is needed when he's called upon. He's not going to light anyone up, but if I need a reserve form the NFC East who's not going to blow a game that's already in the bag he's my choice.