Tuesday, March 31, 2009

What is "Upside?"

I've seen this question all over the place recently:

"What is upside?"

Now let me try to explain...

Upside basically means potential. When you say that a player has a lot of upside it means that they have a lot of potential. They have all the physical tools to be an excellent player, the problem is they just haven't been able to put it all together at any point in their career.

Players with a lot of upside can be risky draft picks. I've heard Brian Dawkins say "Flashes of brilliance just means you're not trying hard enough all the time." (I'm paraphrasing.) So players with lots of upside may have a limitless ceiling, but their floor might also be a lot lower than other players at the position.

There are some NFL teams that get enamored with players with a huge upside. The Raiders are one of the most obvious choices. Al Davis drafted JaMarcus Russell because he could throw the football 70-yards from his knees. Forget the fact that he couldn't hit the broad side of the barn from 5-yards away (slight exageration.)

You'll see a lot of top-tier players with great upside being taken in the mid-to-late first round of the NFL draft. You'll see a lot of other less-polished players with upside taken later on the first day.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Traveling in the NBA

To prove to you that I don't only write about the NFL I bring you this:

Is it just me, or does Lebron James travel all the time and get away with it?

I haven't watched the NBA seriously in a few years now. For one reason, my girlfriend can't stand watching sports, so I often have to make some concessions. I have to save my precious few allotted hours for March Madness and NFL Sundays and Mondays (and sometimes Saturdays and Thursdays.)

There's also this, though: it's just not that interesting anymore. When the Suns were running a fast-paced, run-n'-gun offense and Steve Nash was working his magic feeding the likes of Staudemire, Diaw, Bell, Thomas, Barbosa, etc. it was a thing of beauty. It was just so exciting! But basketball has changed a lot in the last few seasons. It seems to be a selfish league now, with a few superstars out for themselves and very little emphasis on team play.

But anyway, I digress. I was watching some of the Cavs game this evening and I was shocked by one thing: Lebron James travels. All the time. And he gets away with it! It's one thing to call him out for his "crab dribble" (which is clearly a travel) but that's not the extent of his happy feet.

There were at least 5 or 6 moments in this evening's game against the Nets where James got away with a walk. I might be wrong - I'm watching the game on a standard def TV, I'm not right there on the court like the refs - but from my vantage point the infractions seemed pretty eggregious.

There are essentially 2 major categories of Lebron travels. The first is what I call the "crunch time travel." This happens when Lebron is double- or tripple-teamed - often under the basket - and he pivots back and forth, often switching his pivot foot. He did that on the play under the basket and came away with a historic basket: His 2,000th point of the season, giving him 4 career seasons with 2,000 pts., 500 rebounds and 500 assists.

The second major category is the "Three step Dunk." Lebron will often cradle the ball and take 3, sometimes even 4? steps before a dunk or a layup. The killer on this one is that it usually happens on a fast-break when there's no one to stop him. Why don't the refs call the travel? Because it doesn't matter, it's not going to help him make the basket or give him an unfair advantage? Maybe, but if it's that obvious you have to make the call. Oh well.

And before anyone starts calling me a Cavs hater let me make it clear that I have no basketball allegiences what-so-ever. I have neither a favorite player nor a least favorite player. I have neither a favorite team nor a least favorite team.

NFC East Pre-draft Grades!

So the meat of the free-agency period is over. There was an early run on the big name talent and secondary run on the role-players, but the market has mostly settled at this point. Now it's time to analyze the major moves in the NFC East and see which teams scored and which teams struck out.

New York Giants: A
Additions:
DT Rocky Bernard, LB Michael Boley, S C.C. Brown, DE Chris Canty, TE Lee Vickers.
Subtractions:
S James Butler, RB Reuben Droughns (cut), S Sammy Knight (cut), CB Sam Madison (cut), RB Derrick Ward, DE Renaldo Wynn.
Re-Signed:
QB David Carr, DT Leger Douzable, RB Brandon Jacobs, TE Darcy Johnson, DE Dave Tollefson

The Giants somehow managed to improve on the best Defensive Line in the NFL. They brought in Rocky Bernard and Chris Canty, who are both likely to start on the inside of the line. They also added LB Michael Boley, essentially adding a third new starter to the front seven. Can the addition of all the defensive aid make up for the loss of Steve Spagnuolo? We'll see.

The Giants lost a couple of key players in Safety James Butler and Running Back Derrick Ward. Hopefully this means the end of the worst-ever sports nickname, "Earth, Wind and Fire." The rest of the players were all expendable veterans on the downside of their career. I wonder if the loss of Ward will take the "wind" out of New York's sails? Get it?

David Carr proved to be a quality backup in limited playing time this season. I've always thought he was underrated after being forced into an impossible situation as the Texans first franchise QB.

The Giants were presented with the option of retaining either Jacobs or Ward - in my oppinion that's a no-brainer and they made the right choice - Jacobs makes this offense run and his early-game pummeling is the only reason Derrick Ward rushed for 1,000 yards last season.

The other players are mostly back-ups and role-players.

Washington Redskins: B-
Additions: RB Anthony Aldridge, P Zacrey Atterberry, LS Jeremy Cain, G Derrick Dockery, RB Dominique Dorsey, FB Jonathan Evans, DB Michael Grant, DT Albert Haynesworth, P Dirk Johnson, K Dave Raynor, OL Isaiah Ross, DE Renaldo Wynn
Subtractions: DE Demetric Evans, P Ryan Plackemeier, LB Matt Sinclair (cut), CB Shawn Springs (cut, NE), DE Jason Taylor (cut), LB Marcus Washington (cut)
Re-Signed: LS Ethan Albright, S Reed Doughty, LB Alfred Fincher, WR Marques Hagans, CB DeAngelo Hall, OL Rueben Riley, LB Tyson Smith, K Shaun Suisham, CB Byron Westbrook

It doesn't really matter who's in charge in Washington, they're invariably going to throw a lot of money at free agents and hope for the best. They certainly proved that the case this year with their monster contract to Albert Haynesworth and the large contract they gave to DeAngelo Hall.

I have reservations about Albert Haynesworth. I've heard from multiple sources that he is not really that motivated. He's only had two really good seasons as a pro and both of them were essentially contract years (his contract ended after the '07 season and he was franchised in '08.) How will he play now that the pressure's off and he got the monster deal he was looking for? Only time will tell. Also keep in mind that the level of talent surrounding Haynesworth in Tennessee was immensly better than in Washington. How is Haynesworth going to fare if he doesn't have guys like Jevon Kearse and Kyle Vanden Bosch demanding the offenses attention? Don't expect him to produce like he did last season, but he should still be solid.

As for Hall, he played well last year after the Redskins got him for a bargain basement price. They then overlooked the fact that he's been disapointing everyone for the last three seasons and gave him a monster contract. Let's hope he lives up to it here, even though he didn't in Oakland or Atlanta.

The 'Skins lost some solid contributors in Shawn Springs and Marcus Washington. They also parted ways with the underwhleming Jason Taylor. Ultimately they gained one big piece, at the expense of a couple medium sized pieces. Did they come out ahead? Maybe a little.

Dallas Cowboys: C+
Additions: LB Keith Brooking, QB Jon Kitna, DE Igor Olshansky, S Gerald Sensabaugh, LB Matt Stewart
Subtractions: LB Kevin Burnett, DE Chris Canty, CB Anthony Henry (trade, DET), QB Brad Johnson (cut), CB Adam "Pacman" Jones (cut), WR Terrell Owens (cut), S Roy Williams (cut)
Re-Signed: None

The Dallas offseason has been all about trimming the fat. The deadly, cancerous, soul-sucking fat. They couldn't wait to part ways with a delinquint Pacman Jones. Brad Johnson and Roy Williams were cut after several underwhelming seasons. After weeks of consideration Terrell Owens was finally cut, which you can file under the addition-by-subtraction category.

Keith Brooking should step into a starting role as a co-middle linebacker and should perform better than Zack Thomas. Gerald Sensabaugh should ease the loss of safety Roy Williams. Igor Olshansky is a step down from Chris Canty, but he should be solid against the run. I think the Cowboys would have wanted Canty back, but they don't have the money to pay him and Demarcus Ware. They're in a bit of a salary-cap bind, and cutting Owens - though necessary - didn't help.

The Anthony Henry for Jon Kitna trade didn't make any sense to me. Yes, the Cowboys were in desperate need of a quality backup to Romo, but trading a solid starting Corner wasn't the right move to make. I guess they must like their second year players to fill the spots vacated by Pacman and Henry.

The cowboys haven't made themselves better this season, but they still have a lot of talent on the roster. They're doing the best they can considering they're crunched for cap space.

Philadelphia Eagles: C+
Additions: OT Stacy Andrews, S Rashad Baker, RB Eldra Buckley, DL Amon Gordon, LB Charleston Hughes, S Sean Jones, CB Byron Parker, FB Leonard Weaver
Subtractions: RB Correll Buckhalter, S Sean Considine, S Brian Dawkins, WR Greg Lewis, CB Lito Sheppard, TE L.J. Smith, OT Tra Thomas, OT Jon Runyan
Re-Signed: LB Tank Daniels, CB Joselio Hanson

The Eagles lost a lot of talent this offseason, including 4 starters from last season and 4 players that saw regular playing time. Brian Dawkins is probably the most visible loss of the group, and the team will certainly lose his leadership and motivation. Dawkins clearly has something left in the tank as he proved by forcing 2 fumbles in the Eagles 44-6 dismantling of Dallas in the regular season finale.

I'm here to play devil's advocate...I think the Eagles are better off now - from a physical standpoint - than they were last season. Let's face it, he's good, and the Eagles wanted him back, but the Broncos were willing to (over)pay him more. The Eagles signed two safeties, Sean Jones and Rashad Baker. The Eagles now have a lot of options at safety. It will likely come down to Quintin Demps and Sean Jones duking it out for a starting spot opposite Quintin Mikell. If Jones wins there's a chance Mikell might move to the Free Safety spot, but anything is possible.

The Eagles signed RT Stacey Andrews to shore up one tackle spot. Andrews will likely start at RT, next to his younger brother Shawn (unless Shawn is moved to LT). I equate the Andrews signing to the Runyan signing of nearly a decade ago. It will solidify the right side of the line for years to come.

The Eagles have been trading players left and right for draft picks and seem to be gearing up for an offseason move or two. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a run at Anquan Boldin, Braylon Edwards or Jason Peters at some point before or during the draft. If they Eagles could land one or two of those players their offseason grade will instantly get bumped up a full letter or more, as of now, they've made some quality additions, but also have a lot of holes to fill.

And I'm Back!

Sorry for my hiatus folks, but I'm back, with a vengeance. (Well, I'm back at least.)

My all-sports blog quickly morphed into a NFL-centric blog, which then quickly evolved into an NFC East blog. I'm still going to cover whatever sports-related stories pique my interest, but for right now my interests are mostly focused around the NFC East and Syracuse University - who, by the way, are playing the best basketball since their 2003 title run and should not be underestimated in the NCAA tourney this year.

So the NFL offseason keeps chugging along, and interesting stories are few and far between:

- Sure, T.O. got cut. Who didn't see that coming when the Cowboys signed him? That's as close to a non-story as they come.

- Buffalo then signed the maligned receiver. Boring! The Bills were the only team in the AFC East that wasn't improving. They're desperate for any help they can get to compete with the re-Bradyed Pats.

- Donte Stallworth hit (and unfortunately killed) some bloke with his car. This is a sad story which shouldn't be getting so much attention, but there hasn't been much else to report about the last several weeks.

- Sportswriters continue to ignore the fact that Mel Kiper's hairstyle hasn't changed in decades. It makes me suspicious. Here's a picture of Mel on vacation with his wife, wearing sunglasses that appear to be MS Painted on:

My hair says "M." It stands for Mel.

- The owners met this past week. They made some subtle rule-changes to protect players and ensure the kicking team never recovers another on-side kick ever again.

- Jay Cutler and Josh McDaniels are having a feud. No one looks good in this situation. McDaniels made a big mistake not owning up to trying to land Cassell. He made an even bigger mistake when he didn't try to reassure Cutler after he failed to land Cassell. At the same time Cutler needs to grow up and realize that the NFL is a business and McDaniels just had interest in working with a player who he has intimate knowledge of. It's not a slight on Cutler's skills, it's just that Cassell was a known commodity.

- T.O. has Alzheimers? I dunno, I just saw the headline on ESPN. I didn't read the article. It sounds weird, but it actually makes perfect sense. The reason he's always demanding more balls is because he keeps forgetting that his quarterback targets him on 80% of the offensive snaps. He also forgets to actually catch the ball a lot, too.

- As per usual everyone under the sun considers themselves a draft-guru this time of year and is writing their own mock draft. Nevermind the fact that you can usually throw most mock drafts out the window before the fifth overall pick. Draft Gurus are like weather men: They can make a career out of being wrong 80% of the time.

- What's the over/under on the Eagles trading out of the 1st round?

- Can anyone tell me what over/under actually means?

Alright, so I've brought you up to speed on the offseason thus-far, now get preparred for NFC East offseason grades!

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Didn't see this one coming...

It was only a matter of time before Terrell Owens ran himself out of town, and last week he succeeded, for the third time in five seasons.

I was mildly surprised by the move. The Cowboys are Jerry Jones' team and he was the only employee in the organization that didn't want to cut T.O. Ultimately, though, Jerry let everyone else in the front office convince him that the team would be better off without the mercurial wide receiver.

But you know what I didn't see coming? The Buffalo Bills didn't waste much time in signing Owens to a 1-year $6.5 Million contract - all of it guaranteed.

Wait, what?

The Bills have gone 7-9 three seasons in a row now. They're close to getting over that hump, but just can't seem to do it. They certainly need to upgrade the talent on their roster, but WR isn't an immediate need. Lee Evans is a solid #1 receiver, with a heck-of-a-lot more of an upside than T.O. considering his age and (potentially) consistent QB play.

Terrell Owens is still a talented player, but he should be prepared to line up as the #2 behind Evans. Can Owens' ego take being the second Banana? He couldn't handle Romo's rapport with Witten in Dallas, something tells me he's going to have a similar reaction when Trent Edwards looks Evans' way with the game on the line.

What confuses me is why coaches, GMs and Owners still think that they can control T.O. The 49ers are off the hook, because they were Owens' first team. He hadn't esteblished any patterns of bad behavior until he palyed for them. The Eagles also aren't completely to blame. There are plenty of players that have a falling out with one franchise, but are completely reborn on team #2. But Dallas is another story. Jerry Jones knew what he was getting into and it blew up in his face. And Buffalo? Really?

Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo all had issues with Owens. Three solid, talented quarterbacks. Three Pro-Bowlers. Three Veteran leaders. Owens started a beef with each one of them (and over fabricated controversies to boot.) Andy Reid couldn't control Owens. Parcells delivered Jones a "it's him or me" ultimatum which led to his departure from Dallas. Trent Edwards is a talented player with potential, but he doesn't have the pedigree of the three players Owens has thrown under the bus. If Owens continues his nasty ways he might crush Edwards' budding confidence.

Is this move guaranteed to blow up in Buffalos face? Not necessarily. Owens managed to last an entire season in Philly before causing trouble. Ditto in Dallas. He might last through his contract without being a pain-in-the-ass, but I wouldn't count on it. Just wait until Owens calls Edwards out for tossing to a wide-open Evans in the 4th quarter against New England, even though Owens was double covered.