NFL What If?

Quarterback Donovan McNabb has missed 21 starts in his 10-year career due to injury; 5 games in 2002 with a broken Ankle, 7 in 2005 with a sports hernia, 6 in 2006 with a torn ACL and 2 in 2007 with a sprained thumb on his throwing hand. Even though these injuries are completely unrelated and none of them have had lasting effects on his playing ability many people have still (unfairly?) labeled him as injury prone - but that's an argument for another time.

Today my goal is to ask one simple question: What if McNabb had stayed injury free his entire
career up to this point? What kind of seasons would he have had statistically?

I don't have a fancy computer at my disposal like the guys at the real What If Sports do, so I relied on a very simple formula for computing McNabb's overall stats. I figured out what his per-game average for each category was and multiplied it by 16, then rounded to the nearest whole number (except for Completion %, Yards Per Attempt and QB ratings - those I rounded to the nearest tenth.)

I did not weight my calculations based on the defenses that he was facing, injuries to other Eagles or opponent players, weather conditions, home/away games, or any other factors. This is purely an examination of his statistical averages stretched out to an entire season.

The fewest games McNabb has ever started in one season is 9 - meaning that he has always started more than half a season - which is plenty of time to establish a statistical trend. It would be a completely different story if he had only started one game because that's not enough to establish anything. Essentially, the more games you have to calculate season totals from, the more accurate the calculations become.

Another thing to note: I did not account for time McNabb may have missed in a game that he started. For instance, McNabb tore his ACL before halftime against the Titans in 2006. He played less than half a game that week, but my process counts it as a full game. Therefore some statistics may be skewed slightly lower. Maybe later I'll go through and calculate his per-quarter statistics and I might get slightly more accurate totals.

Lastly, I only adjusted the totals for games that McNabb missed due to injury. He didn't play the last week of the 2004 season because the Eagles had already clinched home field advantage. He also didn't play some games his rookie season.

So, how does McNabb fare according to my statistics? Let's take a look.

Here are McNabb's official, unaltered stats (sorry it's kinda small):

Here are his "What If?" stats, with the altered seasons highlighted:
So, had McNabb stayed healthy, how would he have performed? Pretty darn well, actually.

In 2002 he would have ranked 8th in total yards, tied for 2nd in TDs and posted the 7th best QB rating.

In 2005 he would have ranked 1st in passing yards by nearly 350 yards and would have been tied for 2nd in TDs.

In 2006 he would have ranked 4th in passing yards and 2nd in TDs while posting the 4th best QB rating.

2007 was the year Tom Brady decided to rewrite the record books, but McNabb still would have ended with respectable totals, ranking 9th in yards and 10th in TDs with a 9th place QB rating.

All-in-all McNabb at his worst performs as a top-10 QB. At his best he's a top-3, right up there with Tom Brady and Payton Manning.

2009 NFC East Preview: QBs

Having the right Quarterback can make or break your team's championship hopes, so it makes sense to start this position-by-position preview with the most important cog in the wheel: the field generals.

Cowboys:
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Tony Romo comes from the Brett Favre school of quarterbacking. He has a tendency to be careless with the football and focus too much on the big-play. He often holds on to the ball for far too long and tosses up lame ducks when under pressure. When his guys come down with the ball he's praised as a hero and called a "gunslinger," but when the other team comes up with the ball - well - this happens. Or how about this one? And this one, too. (To be fair, that 44-6 loss to the Eagles wasn't all Romo's fault, it was a complete team collapse. Offense, defense and special teams.)

Romo's still here, but T.O. isn't. Owens only topped 100-yards on two occasions last season, but he still managed to find the end zone 10 times. Romo's numbers will drop this season, but not as much as you might expect. He still has the game's most reliable tight end not named Tony Gonzalez and there should be a heavier emphasis on the run game, which will keep some pressure off his shoulders.

The Cowboys made a good move bringing Jon Kitna in to back Romo. They blamed losses to St. Louis and Arizona squarely on Brad Johnson and realized they needed an upgrade. Kitna will give them a better chance to win if Romo misses any time. Brad Johnson clearly was not cutting it, but the entire team was outplayed in both of those losses. I'm not convinced Dallas would have won either of those games even if Romo was healthy.

Kitna is essentially the same type of player as Romo: a hopeless gunslingers that will put up lots of yards and TDs, but might also kill you with turnovers. Kitna is not as talented as Romo, but he is far more competitive which helps close the gap. He is not a liability like Brad Johnson, but he's certainly not going to push Romo for playing time.

Eagles:
As maligned as he may be, Donovan McNabb is the best QB in the division and a solid top-5 QB in the league. The Eagles must agree because they gave him a raise and now they're paying him like one. Outside of Brian Westbrook and one season with Terrell Owens, McNabb has been playing with inferior tools at the skill positions his entire career and has still managed to produce like an A-lister. Well the Eagles may have finally surrounded McNabb with enough offensive fire-power to put him over the hump and into a Super Bowl ring. And I'm not the only one who thinks so.

There are a lot of new pieces to this offense - we have to wait and see how they all gel together - but if everything goes as smoothly as it's looking in camp, McNabb can stay healthy and Tom Brady doesn't start shattering records again then McNabb is going to be in the MVP discussion late in the season.

What worries me is depth behind McNabb. Kevin Kolb is number two on the depth chart and has played well in preaseason, but he has been terrible in his sparing regular season action. He played in 6 games last season - mostly garbage time - and recorded 17/34 for 144 and 4 INTs, including at least 2 that were returned for TDs. The light might click on for him some day, but he looks lost in real action.

A.J. Feeley can run this offense well, unfortunately he's very turnover prone. The Eagles coaching staff believes the key to winning football games is protecting the ball. McNabb is excellent at it, flirting back and forth with Neil O'Donnell for lowest INT percentage in NFL history. He might launch a few bullets at his receivers' feet, but at least he's not tossing it into the opponents hands. Feeley, however, doesn't protect the football as well and has given games away with interceptions in the waning minutes. Still - I think he's a better option than Kolb at this point. If McNabb were unavailable for a do-or-die football game I think Feeley leapfrogs Kolb and starts. At the very least Kolb is on the NFL's shortest leash if he does start.

Giants:
Eli Manning has a solid case for best QB in the NFC East, simply because he has something no one else does: A Super Bowl ring. Still though, there have been plenty of pedestrian Quarterbacks that have gotten hot at the right time and riden an excellent defense to a championship. (Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson have both done it this past decade.) I was almost ready to jump on the Eli bandwagon until Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg last season. With the freak-of-nature wide receiver out of the lineup Manning came crashing back to Earth. He no longer had the safety of lobbing a pass to a 6'5" giant when he got in trouble and it exposed all of his weaknesses. He was inaccurate, only managed 3 TD passes over the last 6 games including playoffs - only one of them to a wide receiver - and never cracked 200-yards. In short, he was pretty bad. You could certainly make the case that Plax made that air game run, not Eli.

This is a critical season for Eli to prove that the SB run was as much his doing as anyone elses. The defense is going to keep the Giants in every game they play, and the ground game is good for about 14 points and 40-minutes t.o.p each game. Eli just needs to prove that he can keep win a game or two with unproven receivers and he'll carve out his own legacy. The Giants should be a playoff team no matter what. The real test is going to be what happens in the playoffs. Do they make it to the Super Bowl, or are they one-and-done after an ugly loss at home? That's on Eli.

David Carr seems to have finally found a place he feels comfortable. Carr got a raw deal being the first franchise QB of the Houston Texans. He was put in a position where failure was guaranteed and then blamed for not succeeding. The Giants o-line keeps him upright long enough to complete his drop and make at least one or two reads and he proved that with that kind of support he can make smart decisions with the football. Carr looked better than Manning in the Week 17 loss to Minnesota last year. He'll never supplant Manning as the one in New York, but he is certainly the best reserve QB in the division.

Redskins:
Jason Campbell got screwed. Kind of like David Carr in Houston, Campbell has been forced into a situation where it was nearly impossible for him to succeed. He's had to endure system and regime changes on a yearly basis, criticism from just about everyone and a front office that shows no faith in him what-so-ever. Yes, Jason Campbell is the 4th-best starting Quarterback in the NFC East, but considering the talent at that position in the division that's not necessarily damning. Campbell has all the tools a successful Quarterback needs to win - he just needs the support of everyone around him.

It's clear the Redskins organization has bailed on Campbell - after essentially mortgaging the farm twice to replace him this offseason and failing miserably both times. What remains to be seen is how Jason responds. He could go out with a chip on his shoulder and prove that the Redskins made a mistake trying to replace him, or he could bail on an organization and fan-base that bailed on him long ago.

There is a growing contingency of fans that wants to see Colt Brennan replace Campbell at QB. Get a clue people, that's a HUGE mistake. I have no faith in Brennan's ability to be a starting QB in this league. First off, he went to college in Hawaii. Hawaii runs their offense out of 5-receiver sets about 70% of the time - more than any other team in college - which means that his passing statistics are significantly inflated. His college production is not a good indicator of his ability as a passer on the pro level.

Hawaii also plays in the WAC - a non-BCS conference - so they almost never play top-tier talent. Consequently their record is also significantly skewed. When they do play legitimate competition they get demolished, like during Brennan's swan song - the 2007 Sugar Bowl - when they were embarrassed by Georgia in one of the most lopsided BCS bowls I have ever seen.

Brennan might surprise me and develop into a first-rate starter, but I just don't have faith in a Hawaii quarterback. It's like me playing Pee-Wee football. Sure I can dominate against 8-year-olds, but put me in a league with a bunch of grown men and I'm probably average at best. If Brennan starts a game this year then it's pretty safe to say the 'Skins have already written this season off.

Todd Collins is a capable reserve and a good definition of game-manager. He does what is needed when he's called upon. He's not going to light anyone up, but if I need a reserve form the NFC East who's not going to blow a game that's already in the bag he's my choice.

Peters to Philly?

I just posted an argument for an Eagles trade for Boldin, but I neglected to mention one factor...the only thing that could stop it would be a trade for Bills Left Tackle Jason Peters. Well, seconds after I posted that article I saw this news report.

A trade for Boldin isn't completely out of the question, but it's makes the chances much slimmer. We'll see what happens.

Boldin to Philly?

Arizona Head Coach Ken Wisenhunt has gone on record saying the Cards are willing to listen to offers for WR Anquan Boldin. All offseason the team has been denying rumors they are interested in moving Boldin even though everyone knew they were.

It's no secret that Boldin thinks he's unerpaid (because he is) and it's also no secret that the Cardinals can't really afford to pay him what he's worth even if they wanted to. The best option for the Cardinals at this point is to get whatever value they can from him in a trade scenario, since he's not likely to re-sign unless he gets Larry Fitzgerald money ($10 Million a year range.)

Most people consider Boldin to be a number 1 wide receiver (essentially meaning he demands double coverage: a corner and a safety.) The going rate for a number 1 is a first- and third-round draft pick thanks to Jerry Jones and his foolish Roy Williams trade. I think there are a lot of front offices who don't want to start a trend of over-paying, though, and it's possible a deal might get done for a second and a fourth or fifth.

There are several teams who would be interested, but no team seems as intriguing as the Philadelphia Eagles. I personally think the Eagles are in a good position at receiver with second year phenom DeSean Jackson along with Curtis, Avant, Baskett and Brown, but they're almost certainly going to add another receiver at some point before the season starts, and with plenty of cap room and more draft picks than any other team they're in a great position to deal.

I can't imagine a much more explosive passing offense if the Eagles can manage to pull of a trade. Speedsters Curtis and Jackson stretching the field and the fearless Boldin working the middle. Boldin would go a long way towards improving the Eagles recent Red Zone struggles. McNabb and Baskett hooked up on a few fade patterns last season and Brent Celek came on really strong late in the season, add a tall (6'1"), tough receiver will only make it better.

McNabb has been one of the most prolific passers and proved in 2004 that he can put up historic numbers with a solid, dependable target (he was the first QB in history to throw for 30+ touchdowns and less than 10 INTs). The Eagles have a championship caliber defense and just need a little push to put them over the edge and into a Super Bowl victory. Boldin could give them that push.

Throw the Book at Burress

It has been suggested recently by some sportswriters that Plaxico Burress will be able to plea to a lesser charge in his gun case, thereby limiting his prison time and/or avoid jail entirely. All I have to say is that's ridiculous and the courts should throw the book at him if (or rather when) he's convicted. I will consider it an abortion of justice if Burress isn't sentenced to at least 3 years in jail.

It's very clear that this player just doesn't get it. His narcissism and complete disregard for any and all authority is the mark of a sociopath. It's recently been made public that he repeatedly swore at and disrespected a police officer who pulled him over for reckless driving. Burress is an unrepentent jerk. The only thing seperating him from your garden variety thug is his multi-million dollar NFL contract (or, rather ex-contract.) If he dodges jail time it's only going to embolden him. He's only going to feel more invincible, and the next time his gun accidently goes off in a club it might kill him - or worse, kill an innocent bystander.

This guy whines like Terrel Owens on the gridiron and lives like Pacman Jones off it. Send him to prison for his own good.

What is "Upside?"

I've seen this question all over the place recently:

"What is upside?"

Now let me try to explain...

Upside basically means potential. When you say that a player has a lot of upside it means that they have a lot of potential. They have all the physical tools to be an excellent player, the problem is they just haven't been able to put it all together at any point in their career.

Players with a lot of upside can be risky draft picks. I've heard Brian Dawkins say "Flashes of brilliance just means you're not trying hard enough all the time." (I'm paraphrasing.) So players with lots of upside may have a limitless ceiling, but their floor might also be a lot lower than other players at the position.

There are some NFL teams that get enamored with players with a huge upside. The Raiders are one of the most obvious choices. Al Davis drafted JaMarcus Russell because he could throw the football 70-yards from his knees. Forget the fact that he couldn't hit the broad side of the barn from 5-yards away (slight exageration.)

You'll see a lot of top-tier players with great upside being taken in the mid-to-late first round of the NFL draft. You'll see a lot of other less-polished players with upside taken later on the first day.

Traveling in the NBA

To prove to you that I don't only write about the NFL I bring you this:

Is it just me, or does Lebron James travel all the time and get away with it?

I haven't watched the NBA seriously in a few years now. For one reason, my girlfriend can't stand watching sports, so I often have to make some concessions. I have to save my precious few allotted hours for March Madness and NFL Sundays and Mondays (and sometimes Saturdays and Thursdays.)

There's also this, though: it's just not that interesting anymore. When the Suns were running a fast-paced, run-n'-gun offense and Steve Nash was working his magic feeding the likes of Staudemire, Diaw, Bell, Thomas, Barbosa, etc. it was a thing of beauty. It was just so exciting! But basketball has changed a lot in the last few seasons. It seems to be a selfish league now, with a few superstars out for themselves and very little emphasis on team play.

But anyway, I digress. I was watching some of the Cavs game this evening and I was shocked by one thing: Lebron James travels. All the time. And he gets away with it! It's one thing to call him out for his "crab dribble" (which is clearly a travel) but that's not the extent of his happy feet.

There were at least 5 or 6 moments in this evening's game against the Nets where James got away with a walk. I might be wrong - I'm watching the game on a standard def TV, I'm not right there on the court like the refs - but from my vantage point the infractions seemed pretty eggregious.

There are essentially 2 major categories of Lebron travels. The first is what I call the "crunch time travel." This happens when Lebron is double- or tripple-teamed - often under the basket - and he pivots back and forth, often switching his pivot foot. He did that on the play under the basket and came away with a historic basket: His 2,000th point of the season, giving him 4 career seasons with 2,000 pts., 500 rebounds and 500 assists.

The second major category is the "Three step Dunk." Lebron will often cradle the ball and take 3, sometimes even 4? steps before a dunk or a layup. The killer on this one is that it usually happens on a fast-break when there's no one to stop him. Why don't the refs call the travel? Because it doesn't matter, it's not going to help him make the basket or give him an unfair advantage? Maybe, but if it's that obvious you have to make the call. Oh well.

And before anyone starts calling me a Cavs hater let me make it clear that I have no basketball allegiences what-so-ever. I have neither a favorite player nor a least favorite player. I have neither a favorite team nor a least favorite team.